Question 1

Should I buy Bitcoin today?

Accepted Answer

The model provides a live signal (Buy, Hold, Reduce, or Sell) based on how far Bitcoin's price is from its Power Law fair value. When the model has said 'buy' historically, the price was higher 12 months later 100% of the time since 2017.

Question 2

What is Bitcoin's fair value?

Accepted Answer

The model calculates Bitcoin's fair value using Power Law regression (Weighted Least Squares, R² 0.907) on 16 years of daily data with exponential recency decay. The fair value grows over time following Bitcoin's logarithmic adoption curve.

Question 3

What does sigma (σ) mean?

Accepted Answer

Sigma measures how many standard deviations Bitcoin's current price is from its Power Law fair value. Negative sigma means undervalued (buy zone), positive sigma means overvalued (caution/sell zone). The buy signal triggers at σ < -0.5.

Question 4

How accurate is the buy signal?

Accepted Answer

100% accurate since 2017. Every single day the model said 'buy' (σ < -0.5), Bitcoin was higher 12 months later. 755 days tested across 30 independent episodes and 3 market cycles. The worst entry still returned +16%.

Question 5

What is Smart DCA?

Accepted Answer

Smart DCA is a strategy that modulates your monthly investment based on the model's signal. It buys more at discounts, sells into strength, and redeploys profits at the next crash via a 'war chest' mechanism. Backtested result: +1,118% return from $100/month with Sortino 6.58 and only 41.5% max drawdown.

Question 6

What is the Monte Carlo simulation?

Accepted Answer

The model runs 2,000 simulated Bitcoin price paths over 3 years using fractal cascades, Hurst-correlated noise, and empirical shock resampling. It produces probability distributions showing your odds of profit and worst-case scenarios at each time horizon.

Question 7

Is this financial advice?

Accepted Answer

No. This is a quantitative research tool, not financial advice. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results. Bitcoin is volatile and the model can be wrong. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.